This report analyses Russian propaganda and disinformation – here collectively called strategic deception – concerning the conflict in Ukraine. The strategic deception is not exclusively a Russian term, but it does ca... more abstractThis report analyses Russian propaganda and disinformation – here collectively called strategic deception – concerning the conflict in Ukraine. The strategic deception is not exclusively a Russian term, but it does capture what we think is an essential feature of the current Russian foreign and security policy. It is driven by attempts to put the adversary into a defensive posture and off balance, and thus, to create conditions for surprise. The methods utilized in contemporary Russian strategic deception are partly the same that were already used in Soviet propaganda. But where Soviet propaganda was anchored in ideological truth claims, the contemporary Russian variant can be compared to a kaleidoscope: a light piercing through it is instantly transformed into multiple versions of reality. The main purpose of this report is to examine in detail the emergence and evolution of Russian metanarratives and the terms of distraction about the conflict in Ukraine, and on the basis of this analysis to ascertain the main policy objectives of Russian strategic deception inside Russia and in selected countries of the European Union. It is concluded that the best defence against strategic deception is well-grounded, fact-based knowledge and the willingness to invest into gathering it. No fog of falsehood is able to penetrate the solid walls of well-grounded knowledge and firm commitment to one’s values.

Russian Studies, Propaganda, Strategic Studies, Russian Foreign Policy, Strategic Communication, and 1 more

The present study provides a detailed overview of the actual human rights situation in the frozen conflict regions of EU’s Eastern neighbourhood, namely in Crimea, Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Kar... more abstractThe present study provides a detailed overview of the actual human rights situation in the frozen conflict regions of EU’s Eastern neighbourhood, namely in Crimea, Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh. The focus of the analysis is on the access to the justice system, as well as on the abilities of the de jure or de facto authorities to administer justice. Particular attention is paid to Crimea because the rapidly worsening human rights situation there affects far more people than the population of the other four frozen conflicts combined. International community actions, as well as the role of civil society in protecting human rights are also analysed.

Russian Studies, Human Rights, Post-Soviet Politics, Post-Soviet Studies, The Nagorno Karabakh Conflict, and 3 more

The European Commission is investigating whether Hungary’s nuclear power plant deal with Rosatom breaches EU regulations. In the event that the Commission rules against Paks, Budapest will face a hard choice: should i... more abstractThe European Commission is investigating whether Hungary’s nuclear power plant deal with Rosatom breaches EU regulations. In the event that the Commission rules against Paks, Budapest will face a hard choice: should it comply with Brussels and scrap the project, thus seriously affronting Moscow, or vice versa?

Russian Studies, Russian Foreign Policy, Central and Eastern Europe, Hungary, and Hungarian Foreign Policy

Publication Date: 2014

Publication Name: L'Europe en Formation

Russia’s new security strategy can be read as an overview of the Russian leadership’s world view. The new document puts more emphasis on threats and problems than its predecessor, subsuming national security within th... more abstractRussia’s new security strategy can be read as an overview of the Russian leadership’s world view. The new document puts more emphasis on threats and problems than its predecessor, subsuming national security within the protection of broadly and vaguely defined national interests.

Russian Studies, Security Studies, Russian Politics, Russian Foreign Policy, and Russian National Security Policy

This short analysis intends to identify the strategic and operative requirements of Russia's "hybrid warfare", based on studying the field experiences gained in Ukraine. The concrete aim of this research is to define,... more abstractThis short analysis intends to identify the strategic and operative requirements of Russia's "hybrid warfare", based on studying the field experiences gained in Ukraine. The concrete aim of this research is to define, where, and against, which countries Russia may be able to use this new form of warfare in its full spectrum.

Eastern European Studies, Russian Studies, Military Science, Strategy (Military Science), Russian Foreign Policy, and 1 more

The Orbán-government had detailed plans about how to use the migration crisis in domestic politics, and part of this “strategy” meant neglecting preparatory measures all together. However, when the crisis actually hit... more abstractThe Orbán-government had detailed plans about how to use the migration crisis in domestic politics, and part of this “strategy” meant neglecting preparatory measures all together. However, when the crisis actually hit the country, the lack of preparations backfired and resulted in a series of spectacular failures in the situation’s handling.

Strategy (Military Science), Balkan Studies, Migration, Hungarian Studies, European Union external relations, and 1 more

Incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko is very likely to win the presidential elections in Belarus on 11 October 2015. The opposition is unable and – perhaps, therefore – unwilling to challenge Lukashenko, while a d... more abstractIncumbent President Alexander Lukashenko is very likely to win the presidential elections in Belarus on 11 October 2015. The opposition is unable and – perhaps, therefore – unwilling to challenge Lukashenko, while a decisive majority of the population supports the president. Meanwhile, the regime and the opposition share an interest in protecting Belarusian statehood from Russia. At present, the key actor in performing this mission is the president, who has been ruling the country since 1994. Also for this reason, there will be no Belarusian version of Maidan in Minsk. • However, Lukashenko’s foreseeable victory is not going to stop the process of Belarus gradually conceding key elements of its sovereignty to Russia. The regime is not economically sustainable without constant and massive support from Russia. In exchange for this support, Russia has been slowly but steadily strengthening its control over the foreign policy, defence sector and economics of Belarus. • The EU has neither the readiness nor the resources to confront Russia over Belarus, let alone to substitute the former in supporting Lukashenko, whereas, as stated, a regime change is not to be expected. What is more, even though the Belarusian leadership is undoubtedly concerned about the increasing assertiveness of Russia, it would be a mistake to count on significant policy shifts in Minsk – simply because Belarus is structurally hardly able to conduct any. • Softening the EU approach towards the issue of political democracy and human rights in Belarus in anticipation of certain geopolitical gains would only compromise the credibility of the EU’s policy as a value-based entity, and not generate any positive change on the ground. Instead, EU engagement with Minsk could focus on issues of trade, the promotion of economic reforms and on education, in order to prepare for the post-Lukashenko – and also for the post-Putin – era.

Eastern European Studies, Belarusian Studies, Russian Foreign Policy, European Foreign Policy, Eastern Partnership, and 2 more

Since the change of power in Ukraine in February 2014, Russia has been swift to occupy and annex the Crimean peninsula. In April 2014, separatist riots broke out in Eastern Ukraine, following a very similar pattern to... more abstractSince the change of power in Ukraine in February 2014, Russia has been swift to occupy and annex the Crimean peninsula. In April 2014, separatist riots broke out in Eastern Ukraine, following a very similar pattern to those in Crimea. These actions were accompanied by a strong and intensive, well-coordinated diplomatic, economic and media campaign both in Ukraine and abroad, also supported by pressure exerted by the large Russian military units lined up along the border with Ukraine. The form of warfare Russia employed in Ukraine in 2014, often called hybrid war, has been aimed at defeating the target country by breaking its ability to resist without actually launching a full-scale military attack. In line with contemporary Russian military thinking on ‘new generation warfare’, hybrid war is built on the combined use of military and non-military means, employing basically the whole spectrum of a state’s policy inventory, including diplomatic, economic, political, social, information and also military means. This report aims to seek answers to two main research questions. First, what are the main features and characteristics of Russia’s hybrid warfare as conducted in Ukraine? Derived from the first, the second research question is focused on the operational prerequisites for the Russian hybrid war. In other words, is the Russian hybrid war a universal warfare method deployable anywhere, or is it more country or region-specific?

Military Science, War Studies, Russian Foreign Policy, Politics of Ukraine, Russia, and 1 more

The chapter focuses on the developments of the security and defense policy of Georgia in the light of the strategic documents related to national security. The innovative element of the research is the comparative ana... more abstractThe chapter focuses on the developments of the security and defense policy of Georgia in the light of the strategic documents related to national security. The innovative element of the research is the comparative analysis of the present and the previous national security strategies of Georgia, together with a number of other primary sources (communiqués, declarations, etc.) Thus the article well exceeds the traditional descriptive approach of studying a particular document on national security, and provides a comparison in time as well. This enables the researchers to define also the dynamics and longer trends of security regarding both Georgia and also the South Caucasus region. Authors intend to explore three main questions. The first issue to be studied is threat perception of Georgia, e.g. how it has changed since the 2003 ‘Rose Revolution’ through the 2008 war and due to the contemporary Ukrainian crisis, particularly concerning the problem of territorial integrity. The second question focuses on the international institutional background of national security, thus on the role and effects of the aspired NATO membership of Georgia. The third one is related to the role of armed forces: how has it changed by time, have there been any shifts in the main tasks of the Georgian armed forces.

Russian Foreign Policy, Georgia, Russia, Georgian foreign policy, and South Caucasus